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avagdu
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« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2008, 02:55:24 PM »

The end of the age of oil means the end of any one particular fuel.  There is not going to be a holy grail to replace it.  We are going to have to get used to the idea that we are going to use fuel from multiple sources, whatever is available, and will have to build engines and power generators accordingly. 

There is a small chance that all transportation could be covered by some alternative fuel source, but that leaves power plants to generate electricity for homes and petroleum products still out of the equation.

I for one welcome the advances in nuclear technology and power plants, for instance the nuclear powered generator/battery the size of a hot tub that could generate power for an entire neighborhood.  I believe that was covered on NewsReal.

Detractors of nuclear energy should realize that they are basing their prejudices on power plant technology that is between 20-30 years old and new plants would be much more efficient and most importantly much more safe.  In fact, there are several older ones still in operation right now in the U.S.
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Scott Skawronska
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« Reply #16 on: February 15, 2008, 07:36:23 PM »

Well, I'm thinking Biodiesel's a shoe-in because it can be used in UNMODIFIED diesel engines.  That means, any diesel engine out there can use Biodiesel without skipping a beat.  That means the backbone of our logistics (trucking) and construction (diesel bulldozers and other big equipment).

Alcohol, Ethanol, Butanol, etc., not so much.  They do take a lot of energy to make, and they don't produce as much as it takes to make them.

But of those, BUTANOL will work in UNMODIFIED gasoline engines.

Downside to Butanol:  It's tough to manufacture.  The yield for the raw material (starch) is the same as any other alcohol, but the PROCESS to distil it to a usable concentration is the big bear of the process.  Mostly because the organism that creates the butanol from the starch dies at a lower concentration than say, ethanol.

So there has to be, if I recall correctly, TWICE as many distillation processes to get the same amount of fuel.

If someone were to engineer a more efficient method of making butanol, I think it would be the answer, as it can be exchanged gallon for gallon with gasoline without adverse effect or any re-tuning necessary.

There are tables on the net and Wikipedia has an excellent article on it.


Whoever said, "we're not desperate enough yet to use them" is exactly RIGHT.

I can only hope that the alternative power infrastructure will be strong enough to support manufacturing once the oil is gone.  Because if it isn't, we're gonna have some serious catching-up to do and some really smart people (i.e. NOT the ones in government wasting money, energy, and time) are going to have to come up with a priority hierarchy in order to rebuild the energy infrastructure in order to keep the logistical (shipping) infrastructure online.  Because loss of logistics means eventual loss of EVERYTHING.

Amateurs talk tactics.  Professionals talk logistics.

All you brains out there: Engineer me an efficient way to make butanol and you'll either become a millionaire or the number one on every oil baron's hit list.

Or both.

Best be prepared for that contingency.

S
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avagdu
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« Reply #17 on: February 16, 2008, 02:31:10 PM »

Biodiesel and Butanol sound like pretty good options, at least as stop gap measures, I'm not so sure as far as replacing gasoline entirely. I don't really like the idea of the government mandating ethanol production though, it seems that the food vs. fuel argument covered that (as a bad idea) a long time ago. 

I think finding creative ways to use fuel out of waste products is one of the most sustainable methods we can come up with.
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« Reply #18 on: February 16, 2008, 04:18:33 PM »

The trouble is that the government has been propping up farmers with "no grow" subsidies for decades.  And then they give corn growers all the breaks and incentives, which is why here in the United States, we're using the bad-for-us high fructose corn syrup - because government subsidies have made it cheaper than cane sugar.

Now, all that corn can also be used to make biodiesel AND ethanol.  And, technically, butanol.


While I'd like a greener society, most folks aren't going to be environmentally conscious, or at worst, pay lip service to it and let it pay their paychecks without actually believing in it...you know, "talk the talk" but not "walk the walk."

Butanol is far from optimal.  But it could be, if the manufacturing hurdle was overcome.  That would cause the least amount of issue with equipment already in service, and without requiring expensive re-engineering of engine and motor technology for an "alternative" fuel.

Even long-term.  Should a manufacturing/distillation breakthrough occur, there IS enough crop/farming capability in the United States to supply more than half, if not all, of the fuel demands of the nation, IF the land were utilized to the best capacity AND production was steady.

It could get expensive, though.

Did you know that the BATFE in the united states will license you to have a still for fuel purposes?  You could legally make your own fuel, if you so desire.

So if you want, you could theoretically start taking your own burden off of the petrofuel infrastructure by taking yourself out of the consumer loop.

But would you want to?  Who the heck wants to go through the inconvenience of making his own fuel, when you can just go down and buy it cheaper than it would take in your time and effort and expertise to make it?

Make it more expensive, and eventually people will turn to more economical means.

Until that time, we'll continue to use petrofuels.

Substitutes do exist.  They're just not cost effective yet.

And when they become so, it won't be because THEY are cost-effective.  It will be because the fuels they're substituting for have become COST-INEFFECTIVE.

Which means the economy's emphasis will shift, and the wealth will redistribute along the lines of supply and demand.

Would that be enough to put the United States or other developed first-world nations into a tailspin?

It just might.

S
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« Reply #19 on: February 16, 2008, 05:28:28 PM »

I should caveat my last reply by saying that ethanol is not exactly 'mandated' but it is subsidized, and I don't know of any other alternative fuel sources that are right now. 

Quote
Even long-term.  Should a manufacturing/distillation breakthrough occur, there IS enough crop/farming capability in the United States to supply more than half, if not all, of the fuel demands of the nation, IF the land were utilized to the best capacity AND production was steady.

So you don't agree with the argument that using all the corn would compromise the food supply? I don't know much about corn farming, but I guess from what you said before that this is being used mostly for corn oil, not food?

Quote
Did you know that the BATFE in the united states will license you to have a still for fuel purposes?  You could legally make your own fuel, if you so desire.

Is that for biodiesel too or just alcohol based fuels?

Quote
And when they become so, it won't be because THEY are cost-effective.  It will be because the fuels they're substituting for have become COST-INEFFECTIVE.

I totally agree.
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« Reply #20 on: February 16, 2008, 08:07:57 PM »

I saw a commercial on TV last year from, I think it was Chrysler, that said "coming soon, a car that has no pollution in its exhaust. All that comes out of the exhaust is clear, clean, water and oxygen."

I haven't seen the commercial since.
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« Reply #21 on: February 16, 2008, 10:48:15 PM »

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So you don't agree with the argument that using all the corn would compromise the food supply? I don't know much about corn farming, but I guess from what you said before that this is being used mostly for corn oil, not food?

Nope.  With modern farming methods the United States has the capacity to feed about a third of the world's population at full swing.  We don't because it's not cost effective to do so.  We ran into surpluses years ago so bad that farmers were going broke because supply so severely exceeded demand.

I submit to you that all the arable, fertile land in the United States being wasted right now, idle, could be put immediately to use making non-fossil fuels without disrupting...hell, without even being NOTICED by the food supply sources.

Besides this, there are techniques such as the "racetrack" (a shallow constantly moving oval-shaped creek in which an oil-rich algae is constantly being produced) method that, if implemented in a wide enough scale, has the potential to supply the entire logistical infrastructure with Biodiesel.  This technique, most easily implemented in areas not particularly conducive to building and commercial venture (such as up-to-now useless swamp land), could be utilized in a way never done before in order to provide us an endless supply of fuel.  Fuel for trucks.  Fuel for locomotives.

The big killer is the alcohol part of the equation.  There just isn't an efficient enough method of distilling the stuff yet.  Especially Butanol.

The eggheads should really be working on that.  Because those two substances, if able to be produced in sufficient quantity and efficiency, really do spell the end of the United States' dependence upon petrofuels.

The result would be twofold:

1) The remaining crude oil could be used for other, more directly productive specific ventures such as synthetics.
2) Overnight, our dependence upon middle eastern countries would cease.  Thus, funding for terrorism would stop.  Cold.

If their oil is worth less, there's less money for guns or jihad or anything.  Let them sit on their sea of devalued oil.

And starve.

It would really pay off to research the hell out of these technologies.  Especially by the oil companies, who, with their large budgets and immense research capabilities along with already existing distribution systems, could spearhead their own monopolies ahead by having the next greatest fuel sooner than all the others.

Too bad they don't see it that way.  The profit potential for the already existing players is staggering.  Imagine, just for a moment, how much of an advantage an oil company would have if it was THEIR scientists who made the breakthrough to distill Butanol efficiently.  The marketing campaign alone "We now have a green fuel that will never run out.  That will never be dependent upon non-renewable resources."  And: "We now can provide fuel for the entire world that is kinder to the environment and better for you."  Or, if a minimalist marketing campaign:  "Fuel.  Forever."

Go ahead, imagine that for a moment.

That oil company, even if they only held the secret for a year, would find itself as the primary fuel power of the world.

And since the entire world runs on fuel...

...well, you do the math.

S

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« Reply #22 on: February 17, 2008, 03:46:39 AM »

Talking my old man he's always said that "we are due for a giant step forward or a giant step back  either way you're prepared"

now as much as that is a very black and white argument i agree we are due for either or.  now according to stats i've heard from people like Al Gore and David Suzuki, the world can only support about 1 to 2 billion people the only reason we have so many freaking people here is because of mass produced food using synthetic fertilizer, which is made from oil i have no problem with your bio-fuel replacements i have a problem with oil itself the black stuff that goes into rubber plastic and a plethora of other things once that cheap source gives out you can kiss good bye the computer infront of you alont with most of the other electronic devices along with things like shoes, jeans, and all these things that are made with oil or shipped due to oil... i mean look up at the power grid all those rubber coated wires sending oil and coal electricity to your homes,  think about the things in your house that have plastic in them if you own a car (as i do) how much rubber and oil lubricant is used not to mention things like batteries and flash lights and basically everything... the human population has existed for thousands of years pre oil, and since society seems to be a one way track (ie there is no going backwards as my old man says) what we going to do about it because it seems that we the wogs are the only people with brainpower we are willing to use if this discussion bored is any indication. 

as usual i leave this to you and your thoughts guys which are very very eye opening

you guys freaking rock!

CWS

( i believe in giving credit where credit is due)
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Scott Skawronska
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« Reply #23 on: February 17, 2008, 09:50:22 PM »

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Is that for biodiesel too or just alcohol based fuels?

Sorry I didn't answer this one earlier.

Since biodiesel is NOT a distillation process, merely a conversion from a vegetable oil, used or not, into a methyl diester through the USE of lye and ethanol in specific amounts, then settling out the glycerin, no license is required to produce it.

There is a place here in Tampa that sells a turn-key miniature biodiesel production plant that produces 40 gallons every 24 hours (as long as the raw materials of vegetable oil, lye, and a small amount of ethanol, are available) for about 3 grand.

For about half that, there are plans on the Internet RIGHT NOW that you can follow and build your own.

I don't know about selling it.  But many folks who already drive a diesel are only about three thousand dollars away from being non-dependent upon gas stations.

Especially since many restaurants actually PAY a renderer a fee to come pick up their waste oil.  Some would be very happy to give away their waste vegetable oil (like frying and cooking oil) for free.

That significantly cuts the cost of making Biodiesel.  Because you can use even USED cooking oil to make biodiesel.

Talk about recycling!

You can also use virgin vegetable oil from at least twelve different kinds of plants to make biodiesel:  Peanut, Soy, Sunflower, Safflower, Corn, Rapeseed, Canola, Cashew, Oats, Cotton, Hemp, Linseed (Flaxseed), and others.

Here, check this website out:

http://journeytoforever.org/biodiesel_yield.html

These are comparative biodiesel yields from many different sources of vegetable oil, centralized in a table for comparison.

Imagine, for just a fleeting moment, if Sean had had the option to buy an old diesel truck instead of the camaro or the bronco, and then managed to use some PVC piping and tanking with some valves to make his own biodiesel plant and be completely independent of the filling station?

How Wog is that?

Have "Wog Ops" where teams of Wogs go to restaurants and offer to cart away their waste vegetable oil FOR FREE, then take it back to a centralized location and turn it into FUEL...

"Wogs build their own logistical infrastructure.  Film at 11."

What if WE had the infrastructure?  What if WE driving diesels were the only ones who still had fuel BECAUSE WE'D BEEN MAKING IT OURSELVES ALL ALONG ALREADY??

Who'd have the power then?

It exists right now.

All you have to do is reach out and grab it.

S
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« Reply #24 on: February 20, 2008, 06:35:29 AM »

If I remember correctly bio-diesel generates 3 times as much energy as it takes to produce, so while it wont be as cost effective as crude oil, it's a greener alternative.

And that's compared to say gasoline which generates 30 times more energy than it takes to produce.

I wonder if those figures take into account the energy required for several million years of high temperatures and pressure used to create the oil from plant matter? Or the energy involved in all those plants growing in the first place?
What the planet has done naturally (and for long enough to generate a signifigant stockpile) we can do with concious direction at vastly higher efficiency and speed.

Oil's only cheap because it's currently laying about the place in huge amounts. We simply have to shift from mining it to making it.

Also, the long-term issue with off-the-grid power is storage. Solar works fine for a trickle, but requires batteries to let it build up to useful amounts. Wind provides a lot more power, but again fluctuates and requires a regulating storage medium to provide an even supply.
Batteries are currently a huge polluter, requiring many dangerous and carcinogenic chemicals to produce. And they have a limited life-span. Even with well-maintained deep-cycle lead-acids, you won't get more than 10 years out of them, and to provide a notable power backup, you'll need over a tonne of them.

One option for power storage, while less efficient than electrical batteries, is however far hardier. A water reservoir, turbine and pump. Power surplus pumps water into a raised tank, and on demand lets it flow back through a generating turbine. It comes down to motor/generator efficiency, but a water tank can have secondary purposes. Such as for drinking water, or possibly heating.

On that note, I'd be interested if anyone's seen the Thermal Dump of a turbine setup used in some way that stores the heat, rather than letting the energy excess be wasted.
(a thermal dump is a simple heating coil attatched to a wind charging circuit. If the turbine produces too much energy for the batteries to handle in a surge, it dumps it out into a resistive load. Usually this coil is housed in a vented metal cage in the charging area, which is in turn vented to keep electronics cool, thus wasting this heat.)
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« Reply #25 on: February 20, 2008, 07:18:36 AM »

One pitfall of making biodiesel is the possibility that the government will require producers to pay tax on fuel.  http://blog.makezine.com/archive/2007/06/a_price_to_pay_for_altern.html

It also assumes that there will continue to be a ready supply of used cooking oil for the taking.  As long as waste oils can be used this is a practical way to solve fuel problems but I believe that a peak oil situation will make other fuels scarce and the production of cooking oil is dependent on a strong agricultural system.

We are already seeing the price of corn go up because of the demand from ethanol producers and biodiesel has to compete with other users of waste cooking oil -- it isn't thrown away, it gets processed into soaps, cosmetics and other products.  Restaurants have to pay to dispose of waste oil right now but if that changes and they can make a profit from selling it then it changes the whole economics of things.

Still, biodiesel is something to look into.  I am considering building a wood gas generator from the FEMA directions, mostly as an experiment for gasoline engines.  It makes sense for a stationary engine that could be used for powering a shop or generating electricity and the waste heat could be used for heating a shop or some manufacturing process.

It won't be a matter of which fuel we switch to, it'll be a matter of how many can we switch to.

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« Reply #26 on: February 24, 2008, 07:41:21 AM »

Assuming the worst-case, right now is the time all our resources will be cheapest and most freely available to us.
Right now is the time to stock up on permanent life-altering solutions. Not stop-gap measures like AWOL bags or food stores which, while useful in unprepared emergency situations, won't help once they've run out.
Learn skills.
Get tools.
Build up your resources, not your supplys.

Build a workshop while tools are still easily available and affordable.
Start growing and cooking your own food while you can still afford to fuck it up.
Practice repairing rather than buying new while you're not dependant on repairs working.
Get fit before you need to start running for your life.

These ideals tie in with so many things. Recycling, survivalism, even financial freedom.
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« Reply #27 on: February 24, 2008, 03:58:44 PM »

Build a workshop while tools are still easily available and affordable.
Start growing and cooking your own food while you can still afford to fuck it up.
Practice repairing rather than buying new while you're not dependant on repairs working.
Get fit before you need to start running for your life.

Sci, totally agree.  Stockpile tools and material.  Tools can be gotten for realitivly cheap still, espically since a lot of tools come from China.  Why these tools might not be as high of quality as more expensive tools, as long as the tool works when you need it to, your good to go.  Just be aware that you should take it a little easier on them if you expect they might break. 

Dead on about growing your own food, it's very rewarding and it just tastes better.  I just bought a bunch of seeds for my garden this year, looking forward to it.  This is my third year gardening now, and I have decided to try to start from seeds this year, where I usually buy starter plants from the local big box hardware store.  I hope to have a better harvest than I did last year, I was away a lot of business and couldnt take care of my garden like it needed.  This year I don't have that problem, so I'm pretty excited.  I'm really thinking about building a little greenhouse in the backyard, to see if vegis will survive the winter months, or grow something else during that time.  You got a execellent point, Sci, about growing your own food, it's all about being self-sustainable.

The part about running made me laugh.  Although, in a real situation, I think you will be glad you put forth the effort to get out and go run so that when you needed it, you had that ability.  More than likely in those situations though, you always wish you had trained a little more.  I try to think about that, and it's good motivation to get me off my rear and get around the block.
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« Reply #28 on: February 25, 2008, 11:03:14 PM »

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Dead on about growing your own food, it's very rewarding and it just tastes better.  I just bought a bunch of seeds for my garden this year, looking forward to it.

Although I've got the space for a good size garden straight on the ground, I'm thinking I might have better luck with raised container gardening.  The other advantage to learning that way is I may be able to carry that over to an urban environment should I find myself in that situation again.
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« Reply #29 on: February 26, 2008, 02:51:15 AM »

What ever happened to the Ballard Power cell. Those puppies where where supposed to take over the oil industry years ago.
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