My two cents ...

After watching, listening and reading there is no doubt in my mind that are are all in for some fun times ahead. I use this euphimism loosely since there are some serious problems with our prolific adoption of unsustainable models in the past. The following comments are gleaned from the various sources that I have been exposed to. Please dont take this verbatim since much of it is from memory....

1. Biodiesel can be used on current diesel cars with minor tweaks. But it requires biofuel which in turn requires crops. Even if you get your car to run on it, food prices will soar as production switches to biodiesel supply instead of food production. So dont get too comfy.

2. Nuclear is great if you use newer technologies, but you will be living in a world where all countries will want the same. There is already massive debate over who has the right to dictate who can and who cannot use nuclear technology. Esp since its a relatively small leap to using spent rods in dirty bombs, or refining further to make weapons grade nuclear weapons. Not too sure about how that will work out. Though it is definitely the new trend. Frankly most countries should not be trusted with conventional weapons, or other technologies since they are so unbelievably poor at managing these. I  cite african examples here.

3. There are no easy alternatives to oil therefore society must change. Large urban sprawls and places where you need to drive 50 kms to get to work or back are just going to collapse. It will be too expensive to do what you used to do in your car. Get used to public transport. And make sure you live somewhere where they actually have this.

4. Dont buy out of season foods or goods made 10000kms away. IE like china. Sorry but every time you purchase a cheap T shirt from India or China, or an apple from Kenya, you are contributing to global warming, depleting oil and killing your local industry. Obviously its governments job to prevent this sort of thing, but govs are puppets to corporate and trade pressures. So they only think of their next term and would sell their dying grandmothers into slavery to keep their jobs. IE they have no loyalty. This is almost globally the case with a few countries being slow to bow to corporate pressure. Nevertheless the system will eventually collapse. You simply cannot get your salad from thousands of KMs away at no extra cost. Somehow, somebody somewhere is being destroyed for this.

5. Standards must become global. At some distant point in the future mankind will realise that we are all interdependent and that country X cannot do as it pleases. This means that we are likely to have global standards sometime soon for things. IE within our lifetimes. If China continues to use up all its oil reserves or the USA ignore the kyota accord while the rest of the world burn then you are likely to see wars. Regardless of how big and mighty the country in question is. Its a simple case of survival. If they kill the world then you die with it. Oh, sorry, thats off topic.

6. Usage must drop. Even if we switch to alternative energy sources usage patterns must change. The USA must wake up to the fact that massive cars are a bad idea. Not everything will be "made in china and send looooooong distances to you for cheap cheap". Similarly countries around the world will have to educate their (mostly uninformed) populations that they must stop treating the electric switch like magic. That it comes with a price and that renewable energy sources like solar, wind and hydro are in limited supply.

7. New technologies will develop. This is intesting and its also something that many see as the thing that will save us all. The winning lottery ticket. Alas if this is the case we are likely to destroy ourselves more quickly esp if that form of energy usage comes with pollution as a side effect. As with nuclear energy its not all good. New technolgies are likely to provide relief in some areas, but not all. Somebody worked out that not everyone in China can achieve the same standard of living as is found in the USA. This is physically impossible due to resource constraints. The bottom line is energy is not our only problem... see next point.

8. Oil isnt our only problem. There is global warming (a certainty), pollution on a massive scale (highly probable), water shortages (a certainty), declining natural resources (a certainty), declining food resources (a certainty). And with Oil being used to produce fertilisers for food as well as pesticides we have famine (a certainty). Wars will be fought over who gets the last oil (a certainty). All this means that even if you and your kids make it through the next 10 years without too much pain and a little economic trouble, you will most definitely have a worse next 10 years, and then an even worse 10 years after that. Its no longer the case that in our lifetimes we will be fine and the next generation will see the pooh on the wall. Its in OUR LIFETIMES that we will face massive social failures.

9. Social and poticial systems must change. This is a given. You cannot have the 1st world with a declining population, the 3rd world doubling every 15 years and the gap between the rich and poor widening ad infinitum. Also you cannot have corporations controlling governments to the point where the survival of the planet and species is threatened ad-infitum. Sure we can all be good little shoppers, and keep the economy running but at some point we will be forced to reasses and make some compelling changes. This will be forced upon us. But it wont happen now. Only after all the wars. So dont hold your breath for this one.

Now best you get some rest. You will need it for the years to come.

Oh, by the way, the terminator future isnt likely. All nuclear bombs release a pulse which wipes out electronic circiuts. So if your data isnt protected against this, you are officially screwed. Goodbye all data, computers, electricity, cars, err all modern stuff. Your toaster wont work (since the electronic circuits in the generator are also fried). So best you work out how you will get energy/fuel/etc going then. After that you can figure out how you are going to get your data off the DVD that you burnt with all those trusty PDF's. Oh and your pocket pc wristwatch is useless. So is your PDA, cell phone and walkie talkie. Sorry about that. At leat the Cyberdyne systems model 101 wont be going anywhere.

Biodiesel can be used on current diesel cars with NO tweaks.  This is not hearsay.  This is my buddy driving his diesel truck on biodiesel made in his backyard by him.  I witnessed this.  No tweaks.  Biodiesel = diesel in most ways except for temperature sensitivity.

Why will food prices soar?  Are you under the impression that we are producing food at anything even REMOTELY close to capacity in the United States?

Ever wonder why high fructose corn syrup is used as a sweetener instead of sugar?  It's because the GOVERNMENT has been SUBSIDIZING corn with "corporate welfare" for quite some time.  This was instead of paying farmers NOT to grow crops.

We, the United States, HAVE THE CAPACITY right now, to grow our own food for this nation AND provide a significant amount of biodiesel without compromising either.

Biodiesel will be more expensive than petrodiesel.  But it will only raise food prices in that the diesel used for powering the rest of the farm is that much more expensive.  It has little to do with actual production capacity, which has been scaled back since the late 1970's.  Check the history.  I'm not kidding.

I'm already comfy, because I'm prepared.  I realize that logistics could go to hell in a handbasket.  Hopefully someone in one of the logistical companies such as UPS or FedEx, who has done the math and is just waiting to convert over, with new pricing and new routing to maximize efficiency with the more limited availability of the biofuels.

Unfortunately, we know that corporations don't work that way;  They will wait until the last possible minute and then play an infinite game of catch-up until someone more flexible basically runs them out of business.

And we will be the losers.

But as for personal transportation;  Right now, friends of mine are collecting from local restaurants at around 20 gallons a week per restaurant.  It takes them 24 hours to take a batch of 40 gallons from WVO (Waste Vegetable Oil) to biodiesel in the turnkey plant behind his house.

In three days, they have enough fuel to run four diesel vehicles:  2 Mercedes 300D's, 1 Mercedes 190D, and a Ford F250 Diesel with the 7.3 International Harvester motor.

They go to the gas station to hang out, not buy fuel.

As long as there is waste vegetable oil, my buddies won't ever buy fuel again.

I envy them.  That's why I'm looking for a 190D for myself.

S

I think you could be missing the big picture here. If the global temperature goes up by 10 degrees centigrade then you are likely to have lower crop yields. Also you need oil to make the fertilizers. Therefore its irrelevant even if your assertion that crop production is not at capacity right now is correct (which I doubt given that the USA has already cleared away 90% of its forested land for human use). Bear in mind that these factors will mean LOWER crop yields in future. It will also mean that you cannot import food and fuel as an alternative. Do you have any idea how much plant material is required to create biodiesel for example ? The ratios are not promising. The thing about getting restaurant oil right now is that its cheap because nobody is using it. In the future it will fetch top dollar.

As for "no modifications to your car" I doubt this. I have a friend who has experimented with a variety of bio fuels and who has confirmed that there are minor tweaks. Esp if you are going to run your car on animal fats rather than vegetable fats.

Ah.  Therein lies the problem.  WVO (Waste Vegetable Oil) or even virgin vegetable oil is NOT the same as biodiesel.

To run a car on WVO or "greasel" as we call it, requires modifications.

Biodiesel is an entirely different animal altogether.  They are similar but not the same.  Biodiesel takes vegetable oil, adds ethanol and lye and mixes them together, causing a conversion to a methyl diester (the biodiesel) and glycerin, which precipitates to the bottom.  You get rid of the glycerin, and what's left is biodiesel, which is diesel fuel for all intents and purposes and CAN be run in unmodified modern diesel engines.

Biodiesel is, however, a strong solvent and will dissolve natural rubber seals.  Luckily, modern diesel engines don't use natural rubber for their fuel line seals;  Some of the older ones did, however.

As for other issues, because biodiesel is a strong solvent, it will scour the inside of a fuel tank that has had petrodiesel in it, causing a high particulate suspension which could cause problems, so an inline, easily-visible and easily-cleanable filter is recommended, when converting from petrodiesel to biodiesel.

HOWEVER, if starting with a relatively new vehicle, and running strictly biodiesel, reports are that the particulate filter is not strictly necessary.

If that's what you meant by "tweaks" then yes, true.

But not because of the fuel itself, but because of how the fuel reacts to the deposits left by petrodiesel.

Here's some farm subsidy information to chew on, too:

"Still at the Federal Trough:  Farm Subsidies for the Rich and Famous."

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Agriculture/BG1542.cfm

And here's another:

"Should we pay farmers to NOT grow crops?"

http://uwstudentweb.uwyo.edu/B/BFRITZ/


I'm not making this stuff up, guys.


Actually, yes I do.

From Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel

"Yield:

Feedstock yield efficiency per acre affects the feasibility of ramping up production to the huge industrial levels required to power a significant percentage of national or world vehicles. Some typical yields in US gallons of biodiesel per acre are:

    * Algae: 1800 gpa or more (est.- see soy figures and DOE quote below)
    * Palm oil: 508 gpa[31]
    * Coconut: 230 gpa[31]
    * Rapeseed: 102 gpa[31]
    * Soy: 59.2-98.6 gpa in Indiana[32] (Soy is used in 80% of USA biodiesel[33])
    * Peanut: 90 gpa[31]
    * Sunflower: 82 gpa[31]

Algae fuel yields have not yet been accurately determined, but DOE is reported as saying that algae yield 30 times more energy per acre than land crops such as soybeans.[34], and some estimate even higher yields up to 15000 gpa .[35]

The Jatropha plant has been cited as a high-yield source of biodiesel but such claims have also been exaggerated. The more realistic estimates put the yield at about 200 gpa (1.5-2 tonnes per hectare).[36] It is grown in the Philippines, Mali and India, is drought-resistant, and can can share space with other cash crops such as coffee, sugar, fruits and vegetables.[37]"

I'm not all that excited about the algae claims, although I have read the function model those yields are based upon, and they require constant maintenance and a steady supply of water to work.  However, they do have the potential to have a constant yield year round, especially in hotter climates.

http://www.svlele.com/algae.htm


Agreed.  There's a lot of un-wrinkling to be done at both the fucntional and political levels.



S

Thanks for your words, Chaotic-warrior-sujuzi.
---

Some related news that I came across on this topic is from a talk given by Dr. Lalit Chordia in Biotech Nation. The information is broadly as follows:

1. Currently different solvents are used to extract oils from say soy beans. An example of this is hexane. Hexane is a pollutant. The left over material (called the cake) still contains protein but since it has traces of hexane in it, it is not fit for human consumption. So its sold as animal food.

2. Liquid CO2 (Carbon dioxide) can be used to do the same job. CO2 is plentifull and cheap though the equipment is expensive to setup. The process extracts the oils and leaves clean (cake) protein behind. This means that the leftover is human grade protein. Therefore you have a byproduct that has value. The process is also sustainable and apparently cheap to run.

3. Another usefull fact is that biodiesel has 20% less energy than petrolium based diesel. This is because it uses methanol. In order to get to the same energy output as petrolium diesel, the biodiesel needs to run with methanol. This is measured in BTU's per gallon.

4. The new CO2 technology allows for smaller biodiesel refineries compared with traditional petrolium refineries. This means that there are likely to be small refineries for each regional farm district. Actually I think this applies for all extraction systems and not just CO2.

Use it, dont use it.

Actually, I was going to say, "The biggest problem with electrical vehicles isn't the MAKING of the electricity;  It is the STORING of it.

Storage batteries are STILL the weak spot of electrical transportation.  Solar energy can generate all the energy we need.  The sky is raining soup;  We just need a bucket in which to catch it.

The trouble is, our "buckets" (the storage batteries) are incredibly heavy, or have stability problems.  Even the most powerful lithium-ion batteries have their own issues with self-discharge.

So no, my issue isn't with generation - you do it any way you want, windmill, water power, pig power, methane turbine, solar power, what have you.

My issue is how the hell are you going to store enough of it to compete with combustion for propulsion?


Yeah, except for a few things that we've learned when we tried to do this on an industrial scale (By "we" I mean humanity, not me personally or anyone I know - all of my information is research-driven, based upon much the same attitude towards it as Loopy):

1) Any area that the molten core is accessible is usually volcanically unstable.  This means the potential for an eruption right up through the very same shaft that you're pulling your power, essentially burning to slag your entire power operation and personnel isn't very attractive.

2) Any location where you pump the water down to "react" (be heated) by the hot rock can't be lined with anything, or if it is, you have to have some way of maintaining it...not cost-effective.

3) Molten rock, when cooled, becomes ROCK.  So the very lava veins that feed your "reaction chamber" will eventually clog with ROCK as a by-product of the geothermal process.  Technology still hasn't worked out all the kinks for keeping the molten rock flowing without clogging or overpressure.

4) Because of these complications, trying to maintain some semblance of stable production of power has proven impossible to date.  To quote Kevyn Andreysen from Schlock Mercenary, "Not soon, Sir."

Schlock Mercenary Link: http://www.schlockmercenary.com/d/20010313.html

But hey, if you can come up with solutions to these, I just KNOW there are power companies who are willing to invest millions of dollars on a monopoly, especially one that doesn't consume fossil fuels and is environmentally friendly.

Sorry Loopy bro.  I don't want to rain on your parade;  Believe you me, I want Geothermal energy to work, too, because it's kinda cool, taking the destructive power of a volcano and turning it into a giant endless power plant.  That's very Wog.

It's just not practical...yet.

Perhaps it's a matter of minds and motivation.

S

I'll look into the water car.  I don't have enough information to make an informed opinion.

Yet.

And maybe they finally HAVE figured out the geothermal energy issues;  They may have finally gotten enough motivation.

But I am not holding my breath.

Don't get me wrong:  I want to see, in my lifetime, our country totally independent of any other for our power.  So we don't have to get involved in stupider peoples' issues halfway across the globe, so we don't have to send our best and our brightest and our most loyal straight into the heart of a mess WE need to have sorted out, to die.

I would much rather simply sit back, smile, and watch those smug bastards over there producing oil to drown in their own worthless product we don't need anymore.

Whatever I personally can do to further that goal, I will.

Trouble is, I'm not an engineer.  It's not in my skillset.  And I'm getting too old for it to be.

And there are too many people making money off of the status quo for there to be any significant change without some misery to go along with it.

We just MIGHT have enough misery now.  Especially since this generation is a hell of a lot more spoiled than the last two or three (of which I am a member).  I won't go into detail about all the cool stuff this generation basically was born into and grew up with, that the prior generations INVENTED in order for them to live the lifestyle they're living now...but what I will say is BECAUSE They're so spoiled, it will take a lot LESS misery to motivate them.

The downside is, there's a much smaller pool of really smart, industrious folks in this generation.  The upside is, the ones who ARE really smart, are freaken BRILLIANT and I honestly believe COULD come up with a solution given proper motivation.

Thus, the misery.

Get to it, folks;  We aren't getting any younger.

S